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Table of Contents

Executive Summary
World Oil and Natural Gas: Overview & Trends

     Projected Energy Trends


     Forgotten Issues
The “Call” on the Restricted Countries
     Key Persian Gulf Producers
     Prospects for Higher Output in the Persian Gulf Region
         Analytical Inattention to Oil Production
         Issues Common to OPEC Countries
Alternatives Confronting the Restricted Countries
     Reliance on National Resources
     Inclusion of IOCs
         Importance of Rate of Return
         Competition for Capital
         Importance of Fiscal Terms
         Technical Aspects of Contractual Models
     Potential Impact of IOC Investment
         IOC Impact on Production Levels
         IOC Impact on Market Management
Iran’s Petroleum Industry
     Post-Nationalization Era
     Constitutional Constraints on Foreign Investment
New Energy Policy
     Buyback Contracts
         The First Implemented Buyback Contract
         The 1995 Buyback Tender
         The 1998 Buyback Tender
         The “Discounted” Buyback
         Azadegan Agreement
         Amended Buyback Terms
         Stalled Buyback Projects
     Buyback Approach: Evaluation and Outlook
         Iranian Interests
         IOC Interests
         Impact on Iran’s Energy Strategy
         Domestic Political Opposition
         Contractual Issues
     Energy Strategy
     EPC Contracts
         Projects Restricted to EPC Contracts
         Projects Open to Buybacks or EPCs
    Caspian Sea Projects
    Production Sharing Agreements
Iraq’s Petroleum Industry
     The 1958 Revolution
     The Saddam Era
Oil Policy Changes
     Iraq’s Post-War Offer: February 1990
     Iraq’s Contractual Approach: September 1991
     Contract Negotiations: May 1991 to July 2000
     Iraq’s New Approach: July 2000
     Other Approaches
Impact of U.N. Sanctions
     The “Oil-For-Food” Program
     Oil Smuggling
     Possible Exemption for Upstream Oil Investment
     Post-Persian Gulf War Iraq
     The Social Divide
Changing of the Guards
     The Regime Change
     Post-U.N. Sanctions
     Transition Era
     Economic Perspectives
     Federalist Model
Iraq's Petroleum Industry Perspectives
Kuwait’s Petroleum Industry
     Offshore Development
     Kuwaiti Concerns
         Required Technology
         Natural Gas Shortage
         Economic and Social Issues
New Energy Policy
Project Kuwait
     Kuwait’s Contractual Model: OSA
         Kuwaiti Interests
         IOC Interests
     Implementation of Project Kuwait
         Progress with IOCs
         Opposition in the National Assembly
     Future Outlook
Saudi Arabia’s Petroleum Industry
     Neutral Zone
     Plan to Maintain Sustainable Spare Capacity
     Saudi Oil Wealth
New Oil Policy - Clarity and Separation of Roles
     Saudi Gas Initiative
         Core Venture No. 1 (Ghawar Project)
         Core Venture No. 2 (Red Sea Project)
         Core Venture No. 3 (Shaybah Project)
         Water Desalination
         Electricity Generation
         Summary of Negotiations
     Redesigning and Relaunching of the SGI
Royal Succession
     Short-Term Outlook
      Post-Fahd Era



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